Brent crude slipped below $93 a barrel after closing higher on Monday, and West Texas Intermediate traded near $89. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country is holding fire against Iran for now, but will respond should Tehran attack again. Iranian media conveyed similar sentiment.

China’s purchases of oil from overseas fell to about 7.8 million barrels a day last month, the lowest in more than eight years. That represents a slump of almost 4 million barrels a day when compared with the average over 2025.

The plunge in buying by the world’s largest crude importer — coupled with record US exports and emergency reserve releases — has been one of the biggest buffers helping prevent a major spike in prices since the conflict began. While oil is trading more than 25% above prewar levels, it’s far below peaks seen in recent months.

“The market is increasingly focusing on more than just news about a possible peace agreement,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at AS Global Risk Management. “Although the figures were expected, they underline that China has been the most important factor in balancing the market over the past three months.”

US President Donald Trump told reporters in New York this week that “we’re in the final throes of what will be a very, very good deal. We could have at least an idea one or two days from now.” In earlier comments during a virtual campaign rally, he said the US will declare “total victory” in the war over the next two weeks.

A recent escalation in hostilities put wider peace negotiations at risk, prompting Trump to appeal for calm. A fragile ceasefire — announced in early April — remains in place, but the Strait of Hormuz is still heavily restricted by a double blockade maintained by Tehran and Washington, choking off supplies of crude, fuels and natural gas to global customers.

Even if a US-Iran peace deal is agreed, multiple hurdles will impede the normal resumption of oil flows. Among them, mines in Hormuz must be removed, shut-in fields may take months to restart, and damage to energy infrastructure from drone and missile strikes needs to be repaired.